Tunisians do Africa proud as 2011 starts with a bang

It seems this year could kill us with excitement, high drama, and great emotional moments in Africa.

The year started off with the continued refusal by Laurent Gbagbo to hand over power after he lost elections to his opposition rival Alassane Ouattara.

In Southern Sudan a fortnight ago, there was a referendum on Independence.

The result is that we are witnessing something perhaps 85 per cent of Africa’s one billion people have never seen — the birth a brand new African nation!

Then Tunisia drove our adrenalin to the skies. The angry masses and middle class joined to drive Zine El Abidine Ben Ali from power.

He had ruled the country as a mixed economic reformist-cum-corrupt dictator for 23 years. It was the first ouster of a president in an Arab country through people power.

The rumbles have spread far. In Yemen, the masses are on the streets.

In Egypt, it has been a full week of action against another ageing despot, Hosni Mubarak, who is known in the souks as the “smiling cow” because of his alleged resemblance to the smiling cow on a popular cheese package.

Also last week from South Africa came news that the great man, former South African Nelson Mandela, had been taken ill.

At 92 and frail, there are frightening murmurs that “Saint” Nelson might not be with us by Easter.

For now, the headlines belong to the revolutionaries in the north.

Commentators say Mubarak, despite his spotty record and incurable vote cheating for the 30 years he has been at the helm, will not be dispatched as easily as Ben Ali was.

First, unlike Tunisia, where the army had never been involved in politics and stood aside during the protests, in Egypt the military is up to its neck in politics. It is huge, and firmly in Mubarak’s corner.

Secondly, Tunisia’s population is 12 million, so 600,000 taking to the streets is overwhelming.

In Egypt, with a population of about 85 million, that number is a drop in the ocean that will not swamp Mubarak.

Egypt is the classic story of leaders who have clung to power for decades, insuring themselves by building a huge, loyal military guard.

Mubarak has done it; President Yoweri Museveni in Uganda has done it; Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi too; Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe took the same road, as has Angola’s Jose Eduardo dos Santos.

The problem is that they can never build armies that will overcome all uprisings. There will come a point where the protestors overwhelm the loyal guard.

In fact, the more soldiers a big man recruits to keep him safe, the more he increases the number of people who have relatives in his guard.

In countries like Uganda, if one-and-a-half million took to rioting, the army would just turn, because shooting them means you are most likely to kill your own relatives.

In Egypt, five million can send the huge army fleeing. And when that number comes out, there is another danger.

It will not just be Mubarak who loses power, but the whole ruling class. At such moments, the ruling class will rally and cut their losses by throwing Mubarak under the bus.

They have done Africa proud, those Tunisians.

Charles Onyango-Obbo is Nation Media Group’s executive editor for Africa & Digital Media. E-mail: cobbo@ke.nationmedia.com