Few people in Uganda, President Yoweri Museveni’s bitterest enemies and most severe critics included, will contest the idea that he is a political genius of sorts, and that to date he has proven to be probably Uganda’s greatest political tactician.

Hate or love him, the man never shrinks from taking action when circumstances so dictate. The results may not always be to everyone’s taste, but he almost always gets the outcome he wants.

However, there are times when he gives the impression that all that matters to him at the end of the day is gaining tactical advantage over his opponents, and that the long-term consequences of his decisions are not much of a concern. To illustrate this, take his handling of Uganda’s monarchies.

A few years after he became president, his government had to decide whether or not to give in to pressure by monarchists in Uganda’s largest and most influential kingdom, Buganda, for their kingdom to be restored. It was over 20 years since former president Milton Obote had abolished it.

The pressure, premised on claims that Museveni had promised to unban the kingdom if the people of Buganda helped him to seize power, met with stiff resistance from self-avowed republicans, all men and women of power and influence, within the government.

It is possible that they all knew that frustrating the aspirations of Buganda’s monarchists posed potential risks to political stability. However, eventually it transpired that Museveni understood that a lot better than they did. And so he gathered them together and cajoled them into signing up to his decision to grant the monarchists’ wishes.

Critics maintained that it was wrong to arrive at the decision without consulting the wider public, and warned of trouble ahead. Since then, Museveni has fought a few battles and wars he possibly never foresaw with Buganda’s monarchists over, among other things, what rights their monarchy and monarch have and do not have.

In an effort to clip their wings, he has catalysed the creation of two other kingdoms within the same kingdom, leading to internal tensions not experienced before in living memory.

It was always easy for enthusiasts of history to predict that Buganda’s rebirth would beget demands for the other monarchies Obote abolished to be restored too. And so they did, leading to restoration after restoration and sending Museveni’s popularity among monarchists soaring.

Now, of course, kings had to live like kings. With many having neither incomes nor immediately exploitable assets, it became the government’s responsibility to pick up the tab for their upkeep. Cars and other perks followed.

Suddenly regions that once prided themselves on being republican and on their rejection of leadership by accident of birth, started unearthing hitherto unknown monarchies of their own and pressing for their “recognition.”

Ever eager to respond to popular demand and keep as many people as possible happy and on-side, President Museveni has been only too willing to oblige while ignoring whatever local opposition there might be.

And so the past two decades have monarchies popping up all over the place. However, his creation of “pockets of happiness” where new monarchies have emerged has in some cases also created bitterness.

This is because they have been carved out of already existing kingdoms, as happened in Buganda when monarchists over there had to be reminded where the real power lay.

Perceptive local observers have long warned of the potential threat that creating monarchies poses to social cohesion and political stability. And now it seems the chickens have come home to roost.

According to reports, tensions connected to the creation of new, competing monarchies have been brewing and bubbling under the surface in parts of western Uganda for some time.

Last week they exploded into simultaneous acts of violence across two districts where micro-monarchies are competing for dominance over limited and contested territorial space and possibly influence over, and favours from, the government.

The violence saw unknown persons launch attacks on the security forces and various government installations, leading to many deaths. President Museveni, his government and specifically certain categories of agents of the state have come in for severe criticism by media and other observers.

Perhaps most striking has been the president’s own response to the events. He has been quick to blame one particular kingdom, its supporters and the intelligence agencies.

He accuses the Rwenzururu kingdom of fomenting the violence and the security agencies of sleeping on the job and failing to prevent the mayhem.

Missing in his written assessment, in which he enjoined the public to stay calm, was the role he and his own government played in preparing the ground, if inadvertently, for inter-communal tensions to emerge and fester on a scale many would not have seen in the course of their lifetimes.

Critics, particularly members of opposition parties, are up in arms about his transparent passing of the buck. In this, they miss a point: In politics, admitting mistakes could be a sign of weakness. Spinning alternative narratives, however, is often good tactics.

Frederick Golooba-Mutebi is a Kampala- and Kigali-based researcher and writer on politics and public affairs. E-mail: [email protected]