The civil war in Burundi between 1993 and 2005 resulted in 300,000 deaths and displaced about 10 per cent of the country’s population — most of them taking refuge in Tanzania.

The continuing violence over President Pierre Nkurunziza’s bid for a third-term in office now threatens to return the East African Community partner state to civil war.

If that were to happen, it will confirm fears expressed in findings of various studies conducted by different agencies after the 2010 elections on the prospects for political stability in Burundi.

Sadly, there are no signs of an end to the belligerence, especially after the recent killing of opposition leader Zedi Feruzi and his bodyguard in Bujumbura, and the displacement of Burundians running into Tanzania and Rwanda as refugees.

The situation is quickly morphing into a humanitarian catastrophe, with the Nyarugusa Refugee Camp in Tanzania reportedly overflowing at roughly 200 per cent capacity.

Built in 1997, the camp was designed to host 50,000 refugees running away from the war in DR Congo. By last week, it was hosting at least 64,000 new refugees fleeing political unrest in Burundi. Collectively, the numbers must be higher, given that it already had roughly 14,000 more refugees from DRC than it is designed to host.

The worry among Tanzanian authorities must be higher after reports of a cholera outbreak. It is estimated that about 3,000 cases were reported last week, with at least 31 deaths at the lakeshore village of Kagunga where roughly 50,000 refugees were stranded.

This cholera outbreak, as the UNHCR reported, had become “a new, worrying, and growing additional complication” for the tens of thousands of refugees. Two Tanzanians are reported dead, which raises another dimension relating to refugee versus host community relations.

An immediate recognition that we have the last chance to restore peace in Burundi should trigger concrete actions from regional and international actors to avert civil war.

There are two important points to be understood on the political bases and motives of the current tensions in Burundi.

First, these are not spontaneous occurrences. Tension has been building up since the collapse of dialogue between the opposition groups and the ruling party in 2012.

The talks had been intended to normalise the political environment ahead of this year’s elections, after opposition parties boycotted the 2010 presidential polls. There is credibility in the opposition claims that President Nkurunziza has showed little goodwill for the dialogue.

The president’s political toolkit in the past couple of years has been reported to contain the following: Arbitrary unlawful arrests of activists and politicians; violent repression against the exercise of political freedoms, especially the freedom of assembly; divide and rule tactics towards the opposition; attempts to exclude opposition candidates from polls by advancing a false rule barring candidates undergoing judicial trials from running for office; punishment by dismissal for those in the ruling party who are opposed to President Nkurunziza’s third term plan; manipulation (and eventual sidelining) of the ruling party’s nucleus decision organ, “the council of wise men”; the militarisation of ruling party youth wing (Imbonerakure) and an overreliance on military support for political survival and success of a third-term plan.

Caveats

There are, however, important caveats here: the opposition is not a group of saints. The leaders too are accused of organising violence and building own militias. And the president is not necessarily unpopular with the masses, especially in the countryside.

A review of his term in office will delve into governance indicators such as transparency, equity, rule of law and the management of societal expectations, especially those of the youth.

Many accounts of analysis and commentary backed by data are not flattering for the regime. Performance has been far from satisfactory and protests are not only about politics but also livelihood. But that, though equally important, is aside from the main political matter of extended stay in office.

Secondly, the big picture, in terms of intent and possible outcome, is the collapse of the Arusha peace accord and return to politics of exclusion in Burundi. The institutions established under the Arusha accord have been systematically “killed.” The main target of this is the power-sharing arrangement.

Already, an attempt to change the Constitution in 2014 was defeated by only one vote. Presidential authoritarianism in the context of ethnic polarisation will be very dangerous for the future of Burundi.

Yet it appears President Nkurunziza is almost alone in his quest for a third-term, against civil society, the opposition and other groups in society, including the Catholic church. Almost two-thirds of the country’s population are Catholic.

READ: Polls in doubt as Catholic Church and EU mission quit

The script that President Nkurunziza is rolling out is unfortunately not unique to the region and this perhaps may explain his behaviour. It seems today to be an article of faith among African leaders to use the ballot box to justify term elongation.

In some cases, this attempt has failed miserably as it did in Burkina Faso recently. In others, like in Uganda, not only was the time limit removed to allow President Yoweri Museveni’s continued reign, but campaigns have now started to also remove the constitutional age limit of 75 years.

Can we rely on the region to intervene and help resolve the Burundi situation? Why has the region been sitting by witnessing the annihilation of key provisions of the Arusha Accord around power sharing?

The UN Group of Experts is working on reviewing the UN Peacebuilding Architecture. It was not lost to us that Burundi is one of the country case studies that the experts are reviewing to inform their thinking around the peacebuilding architecture. Would it not be a big tragedy, if while working on their recommendations, the Burundi crisis escalates before our very eyes?

There is no shortage of solutions to the Burundi crisis. Although President Nkurunziza is a necessary part of the solution, it must be noted that he has already treated previous engagements on this issue with contempt. This calls for more active involvement of the international community, including the EAC, the AU and the UN.

It is time to make the crucial connections between sovereignty and collective action at the regional and international levels for the good of the people of Burundi.

Negative social and political solidarity with the political regime in Bujumbura will be highly regrettable.

Godwin Murunga is Senior Research Fellow, Institute for Development Studies, University of Nairobi and George Omondi is Research Fellow, African Research and Resource Forum (ARRF)