It is finally crunch time in the electoral process in Tanzania as the campaigns for the presidency, parliament and councils kick off two months before election day on October 25.

The two main presidential contenders filed their respective papers with the High Court of Tanzania in Dar es Salaam on Tuesday and then with the National Electoral Commission on Friday.

Edward Ngoyai Lowassa filed his papers on behalf of Chama cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (Chadema) while Dr John Pombe Magufuli handed in his on behalf of the ruling Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM).

They were accompanied by their running mates ­“Babu” Duni Haji and Samia Suluhu Hassan, respectively. Both running mates, one of whom will become vice-president depending on which party triumphs at the end of October, hail from Zanzibar.

It is a constitutional requirement that if the main presidential candidate is from the Mainland, their running mate should come from Zanzibar, and vice-versa.

The campaigns start this weekend.

Although officially Mr Lowassa is Chadema’s candidate, he is also the flagbearer of an informal grouping of parties that calls itself Umoja wa Katiba ya Wananchi (Ukawa), translated into English as the Coalition for a People’s Constitution. It was formed in the wake of a botched constitution review.

In 2012, President Jakaya Kikwete formed a constitution review commission, headed by veteran attorney and former prime minister Joseph Sinde Warioba and comprising some of the best legal minds and top political brains in the country.

The commission was tasked with going around the country listening to the people’s views and then preparing a draft constitution that would be presented to a constituent assembly. The CA would use the draft to legislate a proposed constitution, which was to be presented to the people in a referendum.

However, after Mr Warioba presented his draft to the CA, President Kikwete, who had been expected to inaugurate the CA before Mr Warioba appeared before it, went to address the CA belatedly and openly expressed his opposition to the draft. After that, the CA, under veteran politician Samuel Sitta, threw the Warioba draft out of the window and proceeded to write a new one in its place.

It was that volte-face by the president and Mr Sitta’s CA that prompted a walkout by the opposition parties within the CA – Chadema, NCCR-Mageuzi, CUF and NLD. They quickly formed Ukawa as a united platform to advocate a return to the Warioba draft. That was in April this year.

READ: Katiba process dogged by lack of trust, boycotts

Later, they consolidated their position by agreeing to pool their forces in the general election by supporting a single presidential candidate and co-operating at the lower levels of parliamentary and district council polls.

It is this alliance that Mr Lowassa now represents, having been rejected by the CCM in nominations that he claims were unfair and undemocratic.

At the constituency level, the Ukawa parties are busy assessing the relative strengths of all the parties’ postulants in a bid to minimise competition among themselves. This would mean that, if in a particular constituency there is a clear frontrunner (either a party or a candidate), the other parties and candidates will stand down in favour of the former.

This has not been easy, as would-be candidates who had positioned themselves some time ago and who may have invested heavily in “their” constituencies are being told by their party structures to desist in favour of newcomers, some of whom are recent defectors from CCM and have previously shown no sympathy for the opposition.

This has thrown these processes into turmoil, with violent incidents reported in a number of districts. As the opposition has gained significant momentum since Mr Lowassa’s defection from CCM, more of that party’s cadres have been following suit, including former ministers, MPs and provincial leaders.

They include former home affairs minister Laurence Masha and the former chairman of CCM’s regional chairmen’s caucus, Mgana Msindai, both of whom have joined Chadema.

This has created keener competition within Ukawa’s ranks as opposition parties will this year, for the first time, present candidates in all the constituencies on offer. As the possibility of the opposition winning becomes believable, jostling for positions comes naturally because of the political spoils to be shared in that eventuality.

The two main campaigns have also been fine-tuning their election manifestos, which they will use to persuade voters to choose them. But experience tends to show that these documents tend to be mere wish lists with very little possibility of being implemented.

READ: CCM party unveils its manifesto, leaves the opposition fiddling with theirs

As a political analyst puts it, “The parties write down what they think the voters would like to hear, but because there are just too many problems that have not been attended to for too a long time, the manifestos end up being long shopping lists with no hope of being followed once the election is over.”

Ukawa sources hint at a special emphasis they intend to place on education, health, water and other social services. But, at the top of their agenda, one priority that will impose itself will be the constitution. Ukawa leaders have promised that since their very raison d’etre is the constitution review, it will naturally take pride of place.

One official told me that it would be “the priority of priorities. We intend to complete this process in a year. It should be possible, since we have the Warioba draft in our hands.”

A Dar auditor, Nathan Marwa, said: “This is a classic case of chickens coming home to roost.

“Edward was jettisoned by Kikwete, the latter thinking that it was the last time he was seeing him; now Edward is come back to haunt him. Before that, Kikwete and Sitta threw out the Warioba draft, believing it was the end of it; now it is bouncing back, stronger.”

Hinge on scandals

A lot of campaign attacks against adversaries will hinge on past scandals.

The Richmond scandal, which ended in Mr Lowassa’s resignation as prime minister eight years ago, is likely to take centre stage. Mr Lowassa’s campaigners have started placing material on social media suggesting that Richmond was a collective government decision.

More of this kind of thing is likely to appear as Mr Lowassa’s supporters seek to exonerate their man.

It is likely to be an overheated campaign with barbs thrown about by both main contending sides.

Already, CCM chairman Kikwete, in an elders’ meeting in Dar on Wednesday, called to introduce Dr Magufuli, suggested that the huge throngs greeting Mr Lowassa in Mbeya, Arusha, Mwanza and Zanzibar were “Photoshopped.”

An opposition supporter who had been at one of the mammoth rallies was clearly riled by this suggestion and quipped: “Why doesn’t he just shut up and do a little photoshopping of his own before we Photoshop State House?”

President Kikwete also suggested that CCM’s opponents were using a lot of money to “buy” voters. Curiously, this is the same accusation levelled by the opposition against President Kikwete’s own successful campaign, chaired by Mr Lowassa, 10 years ago.

Another brood of chickens, perhaps?