More surprises in store as we head towards an unpredictable election

• More surprises may emerge as Tanzania hurtles towards an unpredictable election slated for October, and major towns in Tanzania are abuzz with speculation and conjecture, mainly about what Lowassa’s bold action means for the country’s political future.
• It is becoming clear that in the upcoming campaign, if Lowassa is finally given the all-clear to represent Chadema, and by extension Ukawa (Umoja wa Katiba ya Wananchi), we are bound to witness a ruthless trading of barbs and much passing of the buck.
• The stage is set for a gargantuan duel, with Magufuli banking on CCM’s traditional broad base and Lowassa counting on the Ukawa platform and the rising youthful support for Chadema.

It has been a year of flip-flops so far, and we may yet experience more volte-faces before Christmas.

The front-running aspirant for the ruling party’s nomination for president was, despite apparent heavy support from the party faithful, axed by the structures.

Unhappy with the decision against him, and claiming the rules had been flouted, Edward Lowassa decided to leave Chama cha Mapinduzi and join the main opposition Chadema.

Chadema, who had for a long time vilified Lowassa as a corrupt CCM apparatchik, swallowed their words, invited him into their fold and allowed him to vie as a presidential aspirant.

Rumours started swirling that a number of Chadema leaders, uncomfortable with the strange-bedfellows situation that was emerging, had decided to quit. These included the party’s secretary-general and last election’s impressive presidential candidate, Wilbroad Slaa.

More surprises may emerge as Tanzania hurtles towards an unpredictable election slated for October, and major towns in Tanzania are abuzz with speculation and conjecture, mainly about what Lowassa’s bold action means for the country’s political future.

The Chadema leadership has been quick to explain its abrupt change of heart. They say their accusations of corruption targeted CCM, whose institutions, including the government, are “so corrupt that if you got the saintliest angel from heaven and put him in CCM for a week you would go back to find he has become a thief,’ said Chadema chairman Freeman Mbowe.

A Chadema central committee member and renowned academic Mwesiga Baregu stressed the institutional nature of the sins attributed to Lowassa.

“CCM wanted to paint Lowassa in such a bad light that one would think that if he were got rid of, everything in that party would be clean. But he has been out of the leadership for eight years and during those eight years the corruption scandals have become more and more egregious.”

Lowassa himself has been giving his version of the so-called Richmond scandal, over which he resigned as prime minister eight years ago. He has been repeating that everything he did was sanctioned by “my boss” (President Jakaya Kikwete) and that even when he wanted the negotiations terminated it was “my boss” who told him to continue.

It is becoming clear that in the upcoming campaign, if Lowassa is finally given the all-clear to represent Chadema, and by extension Ukawa (Umoja wa Katiba ya Wananchi), we are bound to witness a ruthless trading of barbs and much passing of the buck.

A couple of weeks ago, CCM chose the current Minister of Infrastructure John Pombe Magufuli, with a reputation for crunching numbers and statistics and sometimes erratic statements, but who is seen by many as a doer, a man of action. Lowassa too is seen as a man of action and his supporters credit him with many of the positive results posted by President Kikwete’s administration.

Lowassa had been amassing public support in a way that was seen by some as overkill. Hundreds of thousands signed his endorsement when only a couple of hundreds were needed. Bodaboda riders, students, youth groups and others thronged his home to “ask” him to run.

In the end, President Kikwete decided to ignore all those public manifestations and engineered Lowassa’s excision from the list of aspirants. It seemed then that the end of Lowassa the politician had arrived. But the man himself had other ideas, and other ideas had the man they needed.

The opposition has been waging an uphill struggle against the ruling party, CCM, which has been creaking and wheezing under the weight of a long-drawn incumbency.