The rolling out of an ambitious strategy for the long-overdue representation of Africa in the exclusive club of the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council is welcome news.

It’s a compelling call and one that should acceded to without much ado. But will Africa earn its seat at the veto power table without a fight?

Paradoxically, the first hurdle that Africa will have to overcome is, well, Africa itself.

The push for a permanent seat on the UNSC is not entirely new. After the promulgation of a new Republic of South Africa in 1994, the Nelson Mandela administration trained its sights on the UNSC. Soon, Nigeria presented its bona fides, leveraging its population heft. Not to be left behind, Egypt has also been clamouring for the coveted seat.

Either UN statutes will have to be amended to have Africa represented as a single entity — an imponderable — or the African nations eyeing the seat will have to reach an agreement for only one of them to represent the continent.

Going by the bitter campaign for the position of African Union Commission Chairman that saw the ouster of Gabonese Jean Ping and his replacement with South Africa’s Nkozasana Dlamini-Zuma, it can be expected that the question of who occupies the veto position will be anything but a walk in the park.

The second stumbling block is that of support. It is not going to be as easy as the AU presenting its resolutions to the UN and its demands being acceded to in one fell swoop.

Of the five UNSC members with veto powers, African nations can cautiously expect support from the People’s Republic of China. After all, under the Forum on China Africa Co-operation, Chinese and African leaders have repeatedly declared their commitment to UN reforms and better representation of Africa at the world body.

Indeed, China owes a debt of gratitude to Africa. It is the African votes that tipped the scales against Taiwan (also known as Republic of China) and ensured the arrival of Beijing as the rightful representative of the Chinese people at the UN.

Russia too, in its own interest, can be brought around to supporting the African cause, especially as the former superpower seeks allies in view of sanctions and isolation by the West.

One can’t be certain about support from the remaining three, USA, France and Britain. These three nations enjoy a hegemonic hold over Africa and would naturally be wary of Africa’s bid to upset the obtaining balance of power.

The third hurdle relates closely to the “status quo” factor. It is not only Africa that is campaigning for veto power status. Brazil, Germany, India and Japan are joined by the so-called Muslim-majority nation as polities lobbying for a seat at the table either in their own right or on behalf of wider regional interests.

As with the contest of wills between South Africa, Nigeria and Egypt in the African context, these nations also face opposition from within their regions. As an example, China is known to oppose Japan’s bid while Pakistan is dead set against India’s inclusion.

The upshot is that Africa will have to fashion a deal with any number of allies. It will be a tricky undertaking. For instance, throwing in its lot with Japan in gunning for the UN seat would mean losing historical favour with China. Going with India would set alarm bells ringing in Islamabad. Partnership with Germany, quite apart from the indefensibility of having three UNSC members in close geographical proximity (German shares a boundary with France, which in turn shares one with Britain), would strengthen Britain’s opposition.

What is to be done? The bare minimum is that African strategists need to agree in advance on who will represent the continent. Second, African nations need to be wary of potential treachery by the status quo powers. Third, African nations need grit.

Clearly, the push for veto power will upset certain national interests but in a geopolitical game of this nature, Africa can’t please everybody. What Africa needs is a constellation of allies that can win when the matter is put to the vote.

Bob Wekesa is a research associate at Witwatersrand University and a PhD candidate at the Communication University of China. E-mail: [email protected].