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End of an era as Museveni prepares to leave at last – on his own terms

Saturday October 06 2012

Uganda’s impending golden jubilee coincides with the beginning of the end of a great era, the Museveni era.

When the youthful guerrilla Commander Yoweri Museveni became president in 1986 and invited different political forces to join his broad-based government, the question of when he would relinquish power arose immediately from the new coalition partners.

Four years, they were told. But time flew by so fast that many agreed Museveni’s NRM needed more time to arrange for a smooth transition, the country’s first in its turbulent history.

Leading voices to call for an extension included respected Catholic prelate Emmanuel Cardinal Nsubuga.

So a Bill to extend the NRM’s rule spelling out a step-by-step work plan over five years sailed through the interim parliament. The five years ended in promulgation of the 1995 Constitution. In 1996, elections were held and Commander Museveni easily won.

It was a real coronation — when he returned from voting in his country home, Museveni’s motorcade took several hours to do the 36 kilometres from Entebbe to Kampala as ecstatic voters kept blocking the highway to cheer their man.

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By 2001, the NRM had ruptured near the core. Colonel Kizza Besigye led a breakaway faction to usher in 10 years of bare-knuckle contests that on two occasions (2001 and 2006) got so close it looked like Museveni could lose power in an election to Besigye.

After three bitter elections, Besigye is calling it a day and is set to hand over leadership of the largest opposition party, to remain some kind of inspirational father figure for the opposition.

Like Comrade Fidel Castro who outlasted nine United States presidents all passionately committed to destroying him, Museveni has seen all his major opponents home.

From real enemies Milton Obote and Idi Amin, through military rivals like Generals Oyite Ojok, Tito Okello and Bazilio Okello to law-abiding political opponents like Dr Paul Ssemogerere plus a few forgettables who also wanted his job, Museveni has bid them all farewell.

Commander Museveni can now plan to leave on his own terms.

In 2016, he will be 72 years old and still eligible to stand for one more term. Whether he stands then or not, signs are that he intends to lead his party to another victory.

The weakest point of his rule has been corruption in government. But a crackdown is under way and a systematic massacre that might leave a few hundred corrupt senior officials behind bars over the next three years has started.

Meanwhile, with the election of a new opposition chief coming in a few weeks, Museveni simply won’t be able to resist the temptation to work on Besigye’s successor. Options will include initiating loud unity talks inviting top opposition figures into a broad based government.

Museveni does not even have to complete this term. Six months to the end, he can step down and constitutionally without an election hand over to whoever will be vice president in the last months of 2015.

The new incumbent commander in chief would then go into elections seeking his/her first constitutional term. We are not saying that person would automatically win. What is certain is that only Museveni knows that person’s identity for now.

Joachim Buwembo is a Knight International fellow for development journalism. E-mail: [email protected]

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