And so 2013 is upon us.

Top on the agenda for the East African Community will be what to do with South Sudan’s application for membership. If South Sudan is not granted observer status or membership, there may be hell to pay. The problem is not so much South Sudan, as (North) Sudan.

A few months ago President Omar al-Bashir announced that he had foiled a coup and rounded up suspected plotters. The coup makers will try again, and the insurgent regions of Sudan will continue their rebellions. This amid a crippling economic crisis that doomsayers could bring a meltdown.

An overthrow of Bashir could bring in a regime that can only find legitimacy by attacking South Sudan. South Sudan’s problem, apart from its many fratricidal conflicts, corruption, and wrenching poverty, is that President Salva Kiir has pathetically fallen short. His enemies claim his fondness for the bottle has finally crippled his ability to deliver for that poor but rich country.

That is a nightmare scenario for the EAC, especially Kenya and Uganda. The only protection South Sudan can have that would discourage a revanchist Khartoum from attacking it is EAC membership.

The other two countries that will affect the EAC are far away — the Central African Republic and Angola. Uganda already has army units in CAR, where they are hunting war crimes fugitive Joseph Kony.

However, in the past two weeks, CAR rebels have made rapid gains against the beleaguered regime of Francois Bozize. On Thursday, Bozize cried for help from the Americans and French.

If Bozize falls, Kony’s fortunes could change. The situation in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, where Kony also has operations, could change, so the pressure for a more decisive leadership in Kinshasa than currently offered by President Joseph Kabila will increase.

Uganda and Rwanda’s interests in eastern DRC would rapidly shift. At least Uganda will throw in more troops. DRC rebels like the M23 could seek to exploit the situation.

It is widely believed that after the M23 captured Goma in November and started their march on Bukavu, they were stopped at Sake not by political negotiations in Kampala, but by a rapid deployment of the dreaded Angolan army into DRC.

They would do it again. Rwanda would not stand by and watch with folded arms. Tanzania has been unhappy that the mess in eastern DRC makes it difficult for refugees from there and Burundi to go back home. It could end up breaking away from the “East African consensus” on DRC.

Then there is the Kenya election in March. Optimists think violence will not break out this time. Still, whoever wins needs to win big, which looks an impossibility. A violent election or a dispute over a thin margin that drags on will not elicit a hands-off response from a Kenya army flush with a recent victory against Al Shabaab in the Somali port city of Kismayu.

It will come under pressure to enter the fray to restore order. It will be foolish to bet on how that would end. So 2013 turns out to be only for the most lion-hearted East Africans.

Charles Onyango-Obbo is Nation Media Group’s executive editor for Africa & Digital Media. E-mail: [email protected]. Twitter: @cobbo3