Where there’s oil, there must be power-sharing – true or false?

There is a new model of government sweeping Africa and Uganda had better brace for it next year.

It is called power-sharing, and becomes inevitable when an apparently popular candidate is declared runner-up and his supporters reject the verdict.

Uganda has been both a pioneer of and a late convert to political systems in its 47 years of Independence.

At Independence, we had nearly autonomous kingdoms in a de facto republic.

Then after doing the single-party and military regime thing like most of Africa, we delayed the return to pluralism by developing the “Movement System” instead.

For a while, we got away with it as we charmed the donors with arguments that parties breed sectarianism.

Now power-sharing has been adopted in Zimbabwe, in Kenya and is being seriously discussed in Zanzibar.

Of course, the guys in Kampala would sneer at the idea, appalled at the mere thought of sharing anything, let alone power, with their rivals.

But more bitter rivals have shared and life has gone on.

Take Robert Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai in Zimbabwe.

Remember the photos of Tsvangirai after being clobbered like a chicken thief?

The bitterness in Kenya was even worse, with the power-sharing coming when the bodies of the election violence victims had not even been buried.

The Zanzibaris have apparently decided not to wait for a bitter election and want to agree on power-sharing before going to the polls.

So what happens if next February no party sweeps the poll with a clear gap?

Raila Odinga and Mwai Kibaki did not suddenly fall in love and decide to eat from the same plate.

External partners leaned on them to accept each other.

In Uganda, external forces in the past did not have enough of a stake to insist that stability reign at all costs, including forcing two archenemies into the same bed. But things are changing.

Foreign concerns are putting their billions into an oil exploitation venture that is certain to start production next year.

Would they sit back and wait a couple of decades for things to cool down if election losers decided to make the country ungovernable next year?

You need to be really optimistic to expect the ruling party to hand over if it loses by a slight margin; or the bitter opposition to accept defeat in a close race.

In 2006, the opposition Forum for Democratic Change swore they would never take their election dispute to a court of law again.

The ruling National Resistance Movement leadership said they would never hand over to the wrong elements, even if they lost the poll.

The central, eastern and northern regions have already suffered civil wars and will not let anybody destabilise the state from their areas.

The only remaining region a rebellion manager could consider setting up shop in is the west — where the oilfields are.

The belligerents may be ready to fight and spill other people’s children’s blood for power, but would the oil investors allow it?

A power-sharing deal might be forced down a couple of throats.

Unless of course, next year’s winner gets an undisputable landslide victory.

Joachim Buwembo is a Knight International Fellow for Development Journalism. E-mail: jbuwembo@knight.icfj.org