Where there’s oil, there must be power-sharing – true or false?

External partners leaned on them to accept each other.

In Uganda, external forces in the past did not have enough of a stake to insist that stability reign at all costs, including forcing two archenemies into the same bed. But things are changing.

Foreign concerns are putting their billions into an oil exploitation venture that is certain to start production next year.

Would they sit back and wait a couple of decades for things to cool down if election losers decided to make the country ungovernable next year?

You need to be really optimistic to expect the ruling party to hand over if it loses by a slight margin; or the bitter opposition to accept defeat in a close race.

In 2006, the opposition Forum for Democratic Change swore they would never take their election dispute to a court of law again.

The ruling National Resistance Movement leadership said they would never hand over to the wrong elements, even if they lost the poll.

The central, eastern and northern regions have already suffered civil wars and will not let anybody destabilise the state from their areas.

The only remaining region a rebellion manager could consider setting up shop in is the west — where the oilfields are.

The belligerents may be ready to fight and spill other people’s children’s blood for power, but would the oil investors allow it?

A power-sharing deal might be forced down a couple of throats.

Unless of course, next year’s winner gets an undisputable landslide victory.

Joachim Buwembo is a Knight International Fellow for Development Journalism. E-mail: jbuwembo@knight.icfj.org