Nearly half a century of freedom, and here we are, poor and desperate ...

Two Decembers hence, Tanganyika — the part of Tanzania that is now called “Mainland” — will celebrate 50 years of Independence.

It will no doubt be a momentous occasion, a time for celebration as well as introspection, more the latter than the former if this year’s anniversary is anything to go by.

In effect, the 48th birthday of Tanganyika, marked last week, has given us a foretaste of what may be expected at the half-century mark in 2011, since it is most unlikely that dramatic changes will have occurred before then. There is little to savour in that foretaste.

It is generally recognised that the country has an exemplary record of stability and peace in an area all too often been buffeted by ill winds of discord and conflict, occasionally exploding into bloodletting and fratricidal mayhem.

Tanzania, with a few localised exceptions, has largely been spared these extremes, and has managed to cobble together a national identity that is the envy of its neighbours, who seem to be unable to slough off the ethnic skin.

Yet, for all that, these obviously positive attributes have not as obviously delivered on the promise of development and prosperity and a feeling is growing among the populace that even in areas where progress had been chalked up, there has been a relapse.

The perception is that poverty has not only deepened seriously, but also broadened.

The oft repeated mantra is that this is a rich country, endowed with Eldorado-like natural resources — huge tracts of arable land, alluvial wetlands and irrigable plains, mineral deposits, tourist attractions and, above all, a peaceable, cultured population that is willing to trust its leadership.

The oft-repeated question is: How can all this wealth, both natural and human, fail to translate into economic development after all these years?

How can the owners of such bountiful wealth continue to languish in such unmitigated poverty without any sign that things might change for the better anytime in the near future?

More and more, Tanzanians are now ready to lay the blame firmly at the feet of their leaders, accusing them of dereliction of duty, lack of seriousness, corruption and self-seeking egotism.

Also under attack is a political dispensation that places too much power in the hands of the central government — read the presidency — at the expense of local governments, which exist in little more than name.

Many articles have appeared in the press pointing out the widening gap between the affluent minority — some of them filthy rich — who unashamedly flaunt their wealth, and the dirt poor majority who continue to eke out a miserable existence in an increasingly hostile environment — a far cry from the heyday of Ujamaa, when even the poorest member of society held hope at least for his progeny.

As matters stand today, wealth and power breed wealth and power while poverty and powerlessness breed poverty and powerlessness.

This is because, to add political salt to the economic wound, the moneyed are now, literally, buying political office.

In a country that was once proud of its egalitarianism, inequality has sunk a taproot within the polity.

Last week’s press was despondent.

Almost all the articles in the non-government papers and most of the commentaries on FM radio stations dwelt on how little the Tanzanian masses had to cheer about on this anniversary, so that the celebrations, such as they were, became a muted affair limited to the usual military parade and little else.

Will this despondency continue all the way to the 50th anniversary?

Not necessarily. Tanzanians have not lost all faith in President Jakaya Kikwete, even if more are wont to criticise him now than they were, say, three years ago.

They believe he can still salvage something of his legacy by arresting the situation before it gets any worse.

But can he?

Jenerali Ulimwengu is a political commentator and civil-society activist based in Dar es Salaam. E-mail: jenerali@gmail.com