The military is the main culprit in Zimbabwe

TANZANIA PRESIDENT JAKAYA KIKwete, who is also the chairperson of the African Union, now needs to get seriously involved in the negotiation process and step up the pressure on Mugabe and the generals.

It is Kikwete who provided the push to close the February 28 Kenya deal. Zimbabweans need him to step in. He should voice very clearly that a genuine executive power-sharing and a clear reform agenda that includes the dismantling of the security structure are absolute requirements for a settlement of the crisis and that the AU will not accept any deal short of that.

Kikwete and willing SADC member states such as Botswana and Zambia, can also approach China to contribute to the pressure on Zanu-PF generals and close Mugabe’s option to go East for his salvation.

Incentives might also be necessary. These could include giving Mugabe and other Zanu-PF officials immunity for their crimes and guaranteed security to them and their families. These would be controversial concessions, but if power can be shifted from a military dictatorship to a civilian democracy, this is probably a price worth paying.

Francois Grignon is Africa Program Director of the International Crisis Group, www.crisisgroup.org