Uganda is once again caught up in an unseemly and unnecessary argument. Tempers are flaring and insults and choice epithets flying, mainly in one direction: that of State House.

At the centre of the war of words, which could explode into physical engagement in the streets between the country’s teargas-happy police and “security agents” on the one hand, and large numbers of angry Ugandans on the other, is Mabira forest.

The colonialists, whose foresightedness is often disregarded or under-appreciated, saw the wisdom of gazetting it as a protected area way back in 1932, long before environment protection became the industry we know today.

Now President Yoweri Museveni wants to give a large chunk of it, free of charge, to some very wealthy people, a scheme experts oppose on very serious scientific, legal and ethical grounds.

Museveni wants to donate the land to the Mehtas, a sugar growing and refining family who, reports say, have been eyeing it since at least 2006.

If they get the land, they claim, the country will not only slice $20 million off its annual sugar import bill, it will also see unemployment plummet by 3,500 newly created jobs. They will also apparently plant trees, build a 300-kilometre road, and add 10-12 Megawatts of electricity to the national grid.

All these claims speak to some of Museveni’s key obsessions.

One is value addition to agricultural produce, which in this case would be realised by the conversion of the sugarcane grown into sugar.

Another is employment creation, which has been exercising his mind most especially since the Buganda riots of 2009 and the recent Walk to Work protests that to him and many of his handlers were the result primarily of high levels of joblessness.

The post-Walk to Work crafting of the dubious multibillion-shilling youth employment scheme designed to give cash to jobless young people to create jobs, as if by magic, is testament to the importance of the issue.

Next, in a country where roads are defined more by the number of potholes they contain than anything else, the promise of a new road cannot but excite the big man

And then there is electricity. With demand for energy growing by leaps and bounds, the Mehtas’ promise to boost supply must make his mouth water. Whatever other reasons lie behind the scheme, and there are a million and one rumours about them, these provide him with something to try to sell to the public.

Unfortunately for him, the public — made suspicious by his government’s aversion to transparency, his refusal to follow procedure as prescribed by the law, especially the need for wide consultations, and the Mehtas’ rejection of alternative land offered by the Buganda kingdom — is not buying.

And herein lies the most interesting aspect of the ongoing row. In addition to the usual suspects in the form of environmentalists, local and international, professional and amateur, opposition parties and a wide array of civil society groups, others opposing the giveaway include members of Museveni’s own party and government and a whole host of thinking Ugandans.

One of the lessons of Uganda’s history over the past 25 years or so is that Museveni does not give up a fight easily. And so we should expect fireworks before the matter is put to bed either in his favour or in that of his opponents.

But this is no ordinary fight. As in 2007, when a broad front of organised and unorganised interests fought tooth and nail to stop the giveaway when he first attempted it — leading to riots that took on racial overtones, in which several people were killed — he has once again succeeded in galvanising his enemies and a good number of friends who want to see Mabira saved.

Moreover, he seems to have chosen the wrong moment — a time when police brutality, his plans to scrap bail for some suspects and the generally high cost of living that some attribute to profligacy surrounding his re-election campaigns, have caused widespread public anger to build up.

Although reputed by some to choose his battles carefully, Museveni also has a tendency to cause or wade into controversies he would be better advised to avoid.

As the debate grows louder and as the numbers opposed to the scheme swell, it seems as if he may be headed for a historic defeat by a coalition he has helped to glue together.

Already some are talking of how much the Mabira issue exposes his detachment from reality and his growing unwillingness to listen to reason.

Who knows, Mabira II may provide the spark for a full-blown discussion about when it is he intends to make way for fresh thinking.